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==Suspected nuclear states== | ==Suspected nuclear states== | ||
===Israel=== | ===Israel=== | ||
Israel's possession of nuclear weapons has sometimes been referred to as an "open secret".<ref name="guardian burg">{{cite web | last=Borger | first=Julian | title=The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal | website=the Guardian | date=15 Jan 2014 | url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal | archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20230730103556/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal | archive-date=30 Jul 2023 | url-status=live | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> In 1986, Israeli Mordechai Vanunu published evidence in the London ''Sunday Times'' that Israel had been developing nuclear weapons. Days before the article was set to be published, he was kidnapped by the Mossad and taken from London to Israel to stand trial for treason.<ref>{{cite web | title=Pakistan, Arms Race, Deterrence | website=Encyclopedia Britannica | date=26 Jul 1999 | url=https://www.britannica.com/technology/nuclear-weapon/Pakistan#ref988758 | ref={{sfnref | Encyclopedia Britannica | 1999}} | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> The Israeli court found him guilty and sentenced him to 18 years in prison.<ref name="guardian vanunu">{{cite web | last=Black | first=Ian | title=Mordechai Vanunu gets 18 years for treason – archive, 28 March 1988 | website=the Guardian | date=28 Mar 2018 | url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/28/mordechai-vanunu-israel-spying-nuclear-1988 | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> | Israel's possession of nuclear weapons has sometimes been referred to as an "open secret".<ref name="guardian burg">{{cite web | last=Borger | first=Julian | title=The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal | website=the Guardian | date=15 Jan 2014 | url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal | archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20230730103556/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal | archive-date=30 Jul 2023 | url-status=live | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> In 1986, Israeli Mordechai Vanunu published evidence in the London ''Sunday Times'' that Israel had been developing nuclear weapons. Days before the article was set to be published, he was kidnapped by the Mossad and taken from London to Israel to stand trial for treason.<ref>{{cite web | title=Pakistan, Arms Race, Deterrence | website=Encyclopedia Britannica | date=26 Jul 1999 | url=https://www.britannica.com/technology/nuclear-weapon/Pakistan#ref988758 | ref={{sfnref | Encyclopedia Britannica | 1999}} | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> The Israeli court found him guilty and sentenced him to 18 years in prison.<ref name="guardian vanunu">{{cite web | last=Black | first=Ian | title=Mordechai Vanunu gets 18 years for treason – archive, 28 March 1988 | website=the Guardian | date=28 Mar 2018 | url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/28/mordechai-vanunu-israel-spying-nuclear-1988 | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> In 2013, former Knesset member Avraham Burg, defying official policy, openly admitted to their existence and called Israel's policy of ambiguity "outdated and childish".<ref>{{cite web | last=Fiske | first=Gavriel | last2=Sharon | first2=Jeremy | last3=Bachner | first3=Michael | title=Avraham Burg panned for breaking ‘nuclear ambiguity’ | website=The Times of Israel | date=8 Dec 2013 | url=https://www.timesofisrael.com/avraham-burg-panned-for-breaking-nuclear-ambiguity/ | archive-url=http://web.archive.org/web/20230609212908/https://www.timesofisrael.com/avraham-burg-panned-for-breaking-nuclear-ambiguity/ | archive-date=9 Jun 2023 | url-status=live | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref><ref name="guardian burg" /> | ||
Israel may have anywhere between 80<ref name = "guardian burg" /> and 400<ref>{{cite web | last=Revesz | first=Rachael | title=Leaked email reveals Israel has '200 nukes' | website=The Independent | date=16 Sep 2016 | url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/colin-powell-leaked-emails-nuclear-weapons-israel-iran-obama-deal-a7311626.html | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> nuclear warheads. | |||
====1979 Vela incident==== | ====1979 Vela incident==== | ||
On September 22, 1979, a US "Vela" satellite designed to enforce | On September 22, 1979, a US "Vela" satellite designed to enforce the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty detected a signal that seemed to indicate a nuclear explosion had occurred somewhere near the South Atlantic ocean.<ref name="nsarchive vela">{{cite web | title=The Vela Incident: South Atlantic Mystery Flash in September 1979 Raised Questions about Nuclear Test | website=National Security Archive | date=6 Dec 2016 | url=https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2016-12-06/vela-incident-south-atlantic-mystery-flash-september-1979-raised-questions-about-nuclear-test | ref={{sfnref | National Security Archive | 2016}} | access-date=3 Aug 2023| editor1= Burr|editor2=Cohen}}</ref> If such a test took place, it would have been in direct violation of the treaty, which had been in place for over a decade. International analysts came to suspect that the test was carried out jointly by the Israeli and South African governments on South African territory, likely the uninhabited Prince Edward Islands in the southern Indian Ocean. Indeed, after the events of 1967 and 1973, the two apartheid states had come to share many interests, including ideological; in 1978, an official yearbook of the South African government called the two countries "situated in a predominantly hostile world inhabited by dark peoples."<ref>[https://books.google.com/books?id=J8RFAQAAIAAJ&q=%22Israel+and+South+Africa+have+one+thing+above+all+else+in+common:+they+are+both+situated+in+a+predominantly+hostile+world+inhabited+by+dark+peoples.%22 South African State Department of Information, Official Yearbook, 1978.]</ref> However, the United States, which had a vested interest in protecting two important allies from scrutiny, claimed that the data was inconclusive and neglected to investigate further. The United States's response to the government was suspicious enough that a member of President Carter's own administration privately argued that the government's lenience would make the United States seem complicit in a possible breach of the test ban.<ref>[https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/22315-03-memorandum-gerard-c-smith-brzezinski Memorandum from Gerard C. Smith to Brzezinski, "Possible Israeli-South African Nuclear Connection," 17 September 1977, Secret]. Apud National Security Archive, 2016.</ref> | ||
The | The signal has been dismissed by many analysts as a sensor malfunction<ref name="nsarchive vela" />, but there is significant evidence to suggest otherwise. Groups that have argued that the signal indicates a nuclear detonation include a 1979 CIA-sponsored panel of scientists, according to documents published in 2016.<ref name="nsarchive vela" /> Data indicating such a test include the detection of elevated radiation levels in New Zealand sheep, who would have been downwind of the blast site.<ref>{{cite web | last=Johnston | first=Martin | title=Study: Radioactive sheep point to nuclear blast | website=NZ Herald | date=13 Aug 2018 | url=https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/researchers-radioactive-australian-sheep-bolster-nuclear-weapon-test-claim-against-israel/X4VJH4WYIIKWADYI64RI7QTITY/ | access-date=3 Aug 2023}}</ref> Both the Israeli and South African governments continue to deny that any such test took place. | ||
===Iran=== | ===Iran=== | ||
Revision as of 19:27, 3 August 2023
A nuclear weapon is a device designed to produce explosive energy through nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, or a combination of the two (such as in a hydrogen bomb).
Implications
Deterrence
Suspected nuclear states
Israel
Israel's possession of nuclear weapons has sometimes been referred to as an "open secret".[1] In 1986, Israeli Mordechai Vanunu published evidence in the London Sunday Times that Israel had been developing nuclear weapons. Days before the article was set to be published, he was kidnapped by the Mossad and taken from London to Israel to stand trial for treason.[2] The Israeli court found him guilty and sentenced him to 18 years in prison.[3] In 2013, former Knesset member Avraham Burg, defying official policy, openly admitted to their existence and called Israel's policy of ambiguity "outdated and childish".[4][1]
Israel may have anywhere between 80[1] and 400[5] nuclear warheads.
1979 Vela incident
On September 22, 1979, a US "Vela" satellite designed to enforce the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty detected a signal that seemed to indicate a nuclear explosion had occurred somewhere near the South Atlantic ocean.[6] If such a test took place, it would have been in direct violation of the treaty, which had been in place for over a decade. International analysts came to suspect that the test was carried out jointly by the Israeli and South African governments on South African territory, likely the uninhabited Prince Edward Islands in the southern Indian Ocean. Indeed, after the events of 1967 and 1973, the two apartheid states had come to share many interests, including ideological; in 1978, an official yearbook of the South African government called the two countries "situated in a predominantly hostile world inhabited by dark peoples."[7] However, the United States, which had a vested interest in protecting two important allies from scrutiny, claimed that the data was inconclusive and neglected to investigate further. The United States's response to the government was suspicious enough that a member of President Carter's own administration privately argued that the government's lenience would make the United States seem complicit in a possible breach of the test ban.[8]
The signal has been dismissed by many analysts as a sensor malfunction[6], but there is significant evidence to suggest otherwise. Groups that have argued that the signal indicates a nuclear detonation include a 1979 CIA-sponsored panel of scientists, according to documents published in 2016.[6] Data indicating such a test include the detection of elevated radiation levels in New Zealand sheep, who would have been downwind of the blast site.[9] Both the Israeli and South African governments continue to deny that any such test took place.
Iran
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Borger, Julian (15 Jan 2014). "The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal". the Guardian. Archived from the original on 30 Jul 2023. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ "Pakistan, Arms Race, Deterrence". Encyclopedia Britannica. 26 Jul 1999. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ Black, Ian (28 Mar 2018). "Mordechai Vanunu gets 18 years for treason – archive, 28 March 1988". the Guardian. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ Fiske, Gavriel; Sharon, Jeremy; Bachner, Michael (8 Dec 2013). "Avraham Burg panned for breaking 'nuclear ambiguity'". The Times of Israel. Archived from the original on 9 Jun 2023. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ Revesz, Rachael (16 Sep 2016). "Leaked email reveals Israel has '200 nukes'". The Independent. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Burr; Cohen, eds. (6 Dec 2016). "The Vela Incident: South Atlantic Mystery Flash in September 1979 Raised Questions about Nuclear Test". National Security Archive. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.
- ↑ South African State Department of Information, Official Yearbook, 1978.
- ↑ Memorandum from Gerard C. Smith to Brzezinski, "Possible Israeli-South African Nuclear Connection," 17 September 1977, Secret. Apud National Security Archive, 2016.
- ↑ Johnston, Martin (13 Aug 2018). "Study: Radioactive sheep point to nuclear blast". NZ Herald. Retrieved 3 Aug 2023.